News

Victoria

China Market Forecast 2013

15 February 2013

At this year’s China Market Forecast, held at the Sofitel Melbourne, ACBC Victoria was honoured to welcome The Hon Dr. Craig Emerson MP who provided a keynote address to members and attendees.

Mark Whelan (Managing Director, Commercial Banking, ANZ) welcomed guests to the event. Mr Whelan also spoke on ANZ's inceasing China presence and financial services for those seeking to do business with China.

Minister Craig Emerson then reported largely on the findings and implementation strategies of the “Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper, describing 5 key initiatives of the "comprehensive agenda";

1.     “Identifying how to strengthen our economy,
2.     To lock in this strength by building on capabilities through education,
3.     Connecting to Asia's growing markets,
4.     Ensuring sustainable security in the region and
5.     Nurturing deeper and broader relationships, both at the government-to-government level and between businesses, communities and every-day Australians.”

Minister Emerson acknowledged that "to realise these ambitious goals, we need to move quickly to implement real reforms."

The Minister reinforced that Australia supports China's move towards an open capital account and a convertible currency, with the internationalisation of the renminbi as the first step. It was noted that Australia will host the first renminbi forum in coming months, an occasion that will draw senior business leaders from Australia and Hong Kong together in Sydney, to discuss renminbi-denominated trade and investment opportunities.

In summary, the Minister for Trade and Competitiveness urged that thriving in the Asian Century will be underpinned by "seizing the opportunities and managing the challenges that arise." Dr. Emerson’s address can be viewed at on his official website. 

Prior to the Minister’s address, Dr. Li-Gang Liu (Hong Kong-based ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China) shared his expertise through his presentation “The Chinese Economy after the 18th Party Congress”. Dr. Liu provided short, medium and long-term forecasts for China through detailed economic analysis.

From a long term perspective, Dr. Liu emphasised that exporting to China in renminbi is important to both Australian business and China, helping to stabilise the country’s economic imbalances, driven namely by overinvestment.

Dr. Li-Gang Liu was named as the Economist of the Year (2012) by China Business News, a major Shanghai-based financial and economics newspaper. Dr. Liu covers macroeconomics, foreign exchange, capital markets and strategy research for the bank.His previous professional experience includes senior manager in the research department of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; senior fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute in Tokyo; an economist for the East Asia and Pacific region at the World Bank Group; and research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC.

Dr. Kenneth Chern (Professor of Asian Policy and Executive Director of the Swinburne Leadership Institute) also spoke to the ACBC audience, drawing on his wealth of knowledge to speak on “China, U.S.A. and Australia, Implications for the Asian region.” Dr. Chern spoke in the context of political economy and how these three nations relate to eachother culturally and politically. 

Dr. Chern went on to explore and explain the notion of national and public “moods” and impressions within the three countries toward their governments, illustrating the multifaceted and complex public reactions that exist in the current political climate, and identifying their more far-reaching implications.

By bringing to light the underpinning differences between Australian, China and the U.S.A in a political paradigm, Dr. Chern's speech equally revealed the common desires and initiatives of the three countries to cooperatively and effetively consolidate China relations in the Year of the Snake.

Dr. Kenneth Chern was previously a Professorial Research Fellow at Murdoch University in Perth, Western Australia, following a career in the United States Foreign Service. He served as United States Consul General in Perth from 2007 – 2010. His immediate prior assignment was as Deputy Consul General in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; before that, he served as Deputy Director of the Office of Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Singapore Affairs at the U.S. Department of State. Focusing on East Asian and Pacific affairs, he has also been posted to Beijing, Taipei, Hong Kong, Manila, and Cebu. In earlier Washington assignments, he worked at the State Department’s China Desk, the Japan Desk, and the Australia/New Zealand Desk. He served in the White House as Director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, helping to organize the first APEC leaders meeting hosted by President Bill Clinton in Seattle.

ACBC would like to thank Minister Emerson, the speakers, event sponsor ANZ and all those who attended this signature ACBC event.

Download a copy of the China Market Forecast 2013 Presentations:

• Dr. Liu Li-Gang - CMF 2013 Presentation (1.17 MB pdf)
• Professor Kenneth Chern - CMF 2013 Presentation (84 KB pdf)